Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s, Estimate of Shutdown Impact on GDP

Merrill Lynch estimate of impact of government shutdown on GDP:

We think a deal to reopen the government will be
reached eventually, but only after economic, financial and/or
political pain is felt. Every two weeks of a shutdown will trim
0.1pp from growth; additional drag is likely due to delays in
spending and investment.

From Merrill Lynch:

4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q
GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the
government shutdown. [Jan 11 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed
Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for
2018:Q4
and 2.1% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 11 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth
(seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018
remains 2.8 percent
on January 10. [Jan 10
estimate]

CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.
Source: FS – All – Real Estate News 2
Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s, Estimate of Shutdown Impact on GDP